Crucial Updates on Civilian Casualties from Russian Drone Attacks, a New Russian Drone Group, Attacks on First Responders, Remote Mining, War Crimes Denial and the Ukrainian Response
A house burns in Antonivka in an attack claimed by Russian drone pilots.
As September gave way to October, the characteristics of the Russian drone attacks targeting civilians remain relatively unchanged, aside from one major development regarding clear evidence and casualties stemming from remote mining. Additionally, a relatively new drone group has publicly joined the fray, and they have been contributing significant amounts of footage to Osvedomitell Alex’s war crimes blog on Telegram, “From Mariupol to the Carpathians.” Vehicles & civilians walking in the streets remain the primary targets in video footage released by Russian drone units and war crime bloggers, while they continually deny targeting civilians and first responders. Interestingly, weather appears to have been a significant factor in the way statistics have manifested in the last month. From the Kherson Military Administration giving aid to the 124th Separate Marine Territorial Defense Brigade to the counter battery fires of the 406th Separate Artillery Brigade, Ukraine has been mounting a substantial response to these horrific acts.
Between June 21st & October 19th, 408 civilians, police, medics, and volunteers became victims of Russian terrorist drone attacks in the Kherson urban area. Data was compiled using Andrew Perpetua’s database, published publicly at ukrdailyupdate.com. Notable changes occurred between Tochnyi’s last analysis at the end of September and the time of writing at the end of October. In the “Casualty Status” category, survivability of attacks rose by 2% (from 93% to 95%). Changes occurred in age demographics, as well. A full 1.5% shift occurred in the 61-80 age bracket (from 32.3% to 33.7%), as the 21-40 bracket contracted by about .5% (from 18.7% to 18.1%), and the 41-60 bracket contracted by about 1% (from 42.2% to 41.2%). In regard to both the very old and very young, rates remain almost unchanged with an increase of 0.1% each, for a total of 2.7% and 4.3% respectively.
Casualties reached a daily high for the month of fifteen civilians and medical personnel injured by drone attacks on October 5th. This brought the weekly total for the first week of October to a staggering thirty-two. The second and third weeks of October both ended with seven and fourteen reported civilian drone casualties.
Between the 10th and 17th, Kherson saw its longest lull in drone-based terror since late-June & early-July. Data relating to a massive increase in precipitation in the lower Dnipro basin between October 12th-14th was shared by retired NOAA meteorologist, David Helms, on X. This corresponds to a major drop in reported civilian casualties from drone attacks. Between these two weeks, the heaviest precipitation in months noticeably hindered drone operations with zero drone casualties recorded on the 13th & 14th of October. There was only an average of one casualty per day between the 10th and 17th of October. However, once the weather improved, casualties spiked with six on the 18th and seven on the 19th. That the weather serves as such a defense for Kherson’s population, is perhaps indicative of the lack of adequate defense afforded to them.
It must be mentioned that in cases where drones are not able to operate, Russian forces tend to elect less precise methods of fire like artillery, unguided rockets, and glide bombs. A bad day for drones does not correlate with any kind of cessation in shelling or bombing. From a drone casualty perspective, things in Kherson do not appear to be getting much worse than the horrors of the end of September, but the horrors do not appear to be ending either.
An Expanding Cast: The KHABR Group
A screenshot of the KHABR Group’s area of operations – centering their drone attacks on Sadove. Sadove is located about 10km upriver and east-northeast of Antonivka & Kherson.
One newcomer to the battlefield is the KHABR Group. Their Telegram channel first came online on September 6th, 2024. They have identified themselves as a group operating and training in the Kherson area, sharing their operational presence just to the east of Kherson and its suburbs. This group has increasingly emerged as a new favorite source of drone footage for the channel, “From Mariupol to the Carpathians.” This comes after “The Light at the End of the Tunnel” began mysteriously posting mostly non-drone related content in mid to late-September.
In their introductory post and in an update two weeks later, the group showed off their diverse array of munitions which they use to terrorize the civilian population of Kherson. Homemade munitions of varying sizes full of steel ball bearings, VOG grenades with added tails, and stacks of long PTM-1 anti-vehicle mine casings filled with liquid explosive were displayed in storage. Additionally, they appear to use a 3D-printer lab to manufacture custom parts for their drones and munitions.
An example of the results of their 3D-printer factories was shared on their channel on September 24th. Visible in the images are 3D-printed extensions which allow anti-personnel mines to be equipped to FPV drones. Specifically, a US-designed M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel mine is shown being applied to cheap homemade FPV models.
This group has run several successful fundraisers – one of which was promoted widely by a Russian YouTube streamer & Telegram milblogger, Max Komikadze, as recently as October 22nd, 2024.
“The legendary KHABRs are already on Telegram! An elite unit of professional UAV operators. I recommend following this link: https://t.me/habr_bpla – please subscribe🙏”
So, this begs the question as to exactly what the results are of these donations. More dehumanization, more attacks on civilians, and more stochastic terrorism.
In the video above, a terrified Ukrainian middle-aged civilian male hides from the threat of the Mavic drone hovering above him. The post degrades and dehumanizes the victim by calling the victim a “quadrober,” which is a name for a participant in a widely criticized and mocked anthropomorphic subculture centered around animal costumes, adjacent to “Furry” culture.
As was widely reported by journalist, Zarina Zabrisky, trees remain the only cover for civilians and defoliation in Autumn will present a challenge for those who simply try to protect themselves. The drone team claims the man to be a soldier without presenting any evidence. Rather, the victim in this case fits the profile of the most common demographic amongst victims. Additionally, the man is clearly shown in exclusively civilian clothing and without body armor, which is worn by the military far more than the civilian population. In our interview with Zarina, she said that civilians, herself included, avoid wearing body armor, so as not to draw fire to themselves needlessly. The drone pilots apparently favor such targets. As shown in the video above and the photos below, however, body armor or not – Russian forces will still take innocent lives.
Further evidence of the terrorist nature of the Russian drone operators working in the Kherson area is shown by the posts shared by a drone group (left) and by Osvedomitell Alex (right). On October 4th, the drone KHABR Group shared the aftermath of their war crime and stylized it as a revenge killing.
“This is for Kursk, f****t. Khabr on guard 24/7🇷🇺”
Two days later on October 6th, Osvedomitell Alex, the main user of the war crime blog, “From Mariupol to the Carpathians,” shared the same photo, but with only the victim’s face blurred. He captioned the intentional revelation of Russian carnage and barbarism with the following:
“Kherson. Red zone. He’s been lying there for about 3 days.”
The theory of Russian drone pilots being trained on civilian targets is becoming increasingly more evident. In a video posted by KHABR Group on October 16th, a drone can be seen struggling to keep up with a civilian bus backing up to a building. The drone is spotted by those on the ground and the pilot attempts to regain a sense of surprise by doing a sort of feigned retreat. The pilot jerks the drone violently back and forth while changing direction – showing his lack of expertise in doing so. Eventually, the bus was attacked but sustained light damage due to the grenade not being properly aimed.
“Our calculations have noticed how the bastards are using civilian buses to transport ammunition and personnel. We accept your rules of the game. You are hiding behind the civilian population. Then don’t cry in your “khokhlokanals” that the Russians are bad, they touch civilian transport. WE HAVE NOT TOUCHED YOUR CIVILIAN TRANSPORT UNTIL THIS DAY!!! You started the game, we will finish it!!!🇷🇺”
The same video was shared by Osvedomitell Alex two days prior with a contradictory twist. He claims that all buses are targets, a claim he has made since August. KHABR Group’s assertion is completely absurd given his colleague’s behavior & characterization of events. Regardless of the Russian accounts’ attempts to justify their attacks, it is still evident that the operator in this situation lacks the smooth navigational skills of an experienced pilot.
“What are these bastards thinking that they are setting up civilians like this remains a mystery, although what are we talking about? They don’t give a shit that next time there may be people in such a “real” minibus. But now we know that all minibusses are targets and perform a dual-use function.”
On October 2nd, 2024, further evidence of the training of drone pilots emerged when the group showcased pilot training via a FPV simulator. Weather this October has not been ideal. According to The Weather Channel, Kherson has only had three “mostly sunny” days in the entire month of October thus far. Compare that to a week’s worth of days featuring rain and fog. When weather interrupts their terror, the pilots train.
On October 9th, the KHABR Group posted a gruesome video displaying their use of a wounded civilian as bait in order to continue their assault on the Police & EMS personnel servicing the Kherson urban community. They attempted to deny their crimes in the caption.
Some problems arise with this description of events: it begs the question of how the man on the ground was injured in the first place. An interesting element of the post is that they admit that this wounded man is in fact a civilian, while also stating that they do not attack civilians. The illogical framing of the events also stands in contrast to reality. Two recent incidents, occurring within the last month, come to mind – the attacks in Veletenske & Stanislav.
As documented by the Ukrainian National Police, six doctors were wounded on October 5th in the coastal village of Veletenske, after two civilians sustained injuries from a combination artillery shelling and a series of FPV & Mavic drone attacks. Drones attacked the two ambulances that responded to the initial victims.
“The enemy cynically attacked two ambulances that arrived on call with an unmanned aerial vehicle. As a result of the strikes, six doctors were injured: five men aged 57 to 63 and a 21-year-old woman. All have blast injuries and contusions. Vehicles were damaged. The victims were evacuated from the place of the attack by the soldiers of the special unit of the police, so far there is no threat to their lives.”
Yet another recent incident of medical personnel being attacked by drones occurred in the southernmost settlement in Kherson Oblast, Stanislav. According to Kherson ODA, medical personnel managed to escape without injuries, but their vehicle sustained significant damage, especially the windshield. Despite the lack of casualties, this is an example which thoroughly disproves the KHABR Group’s claim of “we don’t beat up ambulances.”
PFM-1 anti-personnel mines have been used to target civilians. The mines are planted via Mavic drones. The Kherson ODA released warnings to the public on Oct. 2nd, 11th, & 21st.
Beginning around Sept. 26th in Dniprovskyi raion, civilians began to fall victim to unknown explosive devices and anti-personnel mines left in or around public transportation hubs, amongst piles of rocks & leaves. Namely, victims were encountering PFM-1 “Lepestok” anti-personnel mines that were disguised enough to be unclear of its nature or origin to many civilians, but they stood out enough that many civilians investigated the objects and suffered grisly wounds to their extremities.
According to data obtained from Andrew Perpetua, between the first report of remote mining on Sept. 26th and the time of writing, there have been eight victims across Kherson Oblast. One 68-year-old man died from his injuries, while seven victims in other instances sustained amputations of hands, feet, and various shrapnel injuries. Civilians living as far away as Shyroka Balka and Beryslav have become victims due to this newly implemented form of terror.
This method of remote mining with PFM-1 anti-personnel mines is not a novel Russian tactic. Instances arose earlier in June 2024 of Russian units outside of Kherson utilizing Mavic drones or FPV’s as delivery systems for PFM-1 mines. Russians began by removing the mines from their MRL-munitions and instead strapped the canisters to the underside of their preferred model of drone. On June 5th, Ukrainian military tech blogger, NIP “Tysk,” posted the following:
“Russian FPV drone with a 9H223 KPFM-1S cartridge with a 220 mm 9M27K3 projectile for the BM-27 “Uragan” multiple rocket launcher system, which contains 26 PFM-1 “Lepestok” anti-personnel mines. The UAV was awarded by the Ukrainian military.”
In a video dating back to June 5th, a drone can be seen delivering the PFM-1 “Lepestok” by dropping the canister in which the mines are typically delivered. While they can be delivered this way, the aforementioned make-shift method employed by KHABR Group appears to be the method being used in Kherson and other settlements along the Dnipro.
In addition to the intentional remote mining of the area, drones present a significant UXO problem. The hand-crafted munitions used by many drone teams are known to have issues detonating successfully. Another way in which they pose a threat is that after drones are disabled by electronic warfare or by some kinetic methods the munitions attached to the drone are still live & dangerous. The Russian war crime blogger, “From Mariupol to the Carpathians,” shared photos taken by residents of Kherson of the aftermath of Ukrainian drone defense. Many appear to have sustained damage consistent with shotgun pellets. Kherson remains one of the most UXO-contaminated areas in Ukraine.
Two damaged drones and an unexploded RPG-7 warhead lie on the ground in Kherson after Ukrainian anti-drone teams disabled them, presumably with automatic shotgun fire.
On October 21st, the KHABR Group shared the following video that suggests Ukrainian forces had been responding to the threat with counter battery fire. Incoming Ukrainian artillery shelling can be heard in this video taken by one of the group’s members.
Earlier that day the group shared evidence that the Ukrainian counter battery response had been quite effective in taking out some pilots of the group’s drone teams and removing the instruments of their work.
An evacuation to Moscow certainly means that serious injuries were sustained by the soldier in question – beyond the amputated hand on display in their post. According to the independent Russian media organization, Meduza, not all Russian forces are so lucky.
Prior to that event, the group revealed that in mid-September, Ukrainian forces hit them hard and severely wounded two of their drone pilots.
“With your permission, I share the realities of combat work (negative format) of the KHABR group. Rose-colored glasses – EVERYONE TAKE THEM OFF. What does the negligence of some, inexperienced, illiterate units lead to – leads to losses in other units. In this case, our UAV operator was seriously wounded.”
One clue as to which Ukrainian units are returning fire and taking out Russian drone teams lies in posts from former President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko donated EW systems and other vital aid to several Ukrainian brigades operating in the Kherson direction around the beginning of October. About two weeks later, Osvedomitell Alex shared a video stolen from Poroshenko’s page showing Poroshenko giving aid to the 406th Separate Artillery Brigade.
This remains an active and developing front where Ukrainian forces are actively responding with effective fires on Russian terrorist drone operator positions and are inflicting casualties.
Prokudin’s Response
Over the course of the last month, the Governor Oleksandr Prokudin has redoubled his administration’s efforts in combating the FPV & Mavic drone threat. Throughout October, Governor Prokudin has taken to Telegram to show the public that efforts are being made to combat the Russian drone attacks terrorizing his constituents.
In particular, Governor Prokudin’s administration has been focused on delivering electronic warfare capabilities to the 124th Marine Territorial Defense Brigade, which has been largely responsible for the defense of the Kherson urban community. In my previous article, the effectiveness of EW systems was seen to perhaps be ineffective at stemming the tide of Russian terror. Earlier in September & October, aid of this nature came infrequently. Provision of aid began at an increased rate starting around October 14th. Prokudin posted photographs of aid packages on the 14th, 17th, 18th, 20th, 21st, and 23rd of October. Previously, aid packages had been announced every other week.
Effect on Russian Forces & Tactics
Russian sources have shared evidence of their recent challenges, now that aid for Ukrainian forces in & around Kherson has substantially increased.
In an October 21st post from war crime enthusiast & genocidal terrorist apologist, Osvedomitell Alex, a Russian drone can be seen falling out of the sky due to a combination of small arms fire from the ground and electronic warfare jamming.
“Kherson. Red zone. How do birds die? Yesterday afternoon, during a combat mission, the operator reached the last mile to perform a drop. The drone was shot down over the PVD, and before that, it was actively jammed by electronic warfare. At night, the square was leveled with artillery, there is a similar report on the enemy channels and a movie about the Germans. The target was destroyed. We will process the places of active counteraction of electronic warfare systems (squares) with artillery, regardless of the presence of civilians there.”
The fact is that electronic warfare systems prove to be a large enough threat to draw the ire of Russian operators. In their genocidal rage-posting, a particular target that has emerged is the Kherson Oncological Hospital in Kindiyka suburb. As mentioned in the previous update on Kherson, on September 2nd, an Oncologist from this hospital was tracked down and killed in his vehicle, alongside his wife, who sustained serious shrapnel injuries. The Russian operators wrote the following on October 11th:
“Kherson. Red zone. Very active work of electronic warfare systems in the oncology zone. The enemy spares no one, neither healthy nor sick. Think for yourself …..”
A week later, on October 18th, their rage at the employment of jamming systems to protect the patients and personnel of the Oncological Hospital continued unabated.
“Kherson. Red zone. Oncology. The enemy constantly uses this object for dual purposes. A very complex goal and task. Again, the strongest electronic warfare works from it. In this regard, we need to follow the example of Israel. Give it time and work until it melts.”
Given the recent attacks on ambulances and first responders, Ukrainian officials are under pressure to protect their valuable human services and to keep their emergency response services functioning. The Russian forces fail to provide proof of a military use of the Oncological Hospital, yet publicly declare their aim to attack the hospital until it is no longer standing. Genocidal and cynical language can be observed in Osvedomitell Alex’s reference to Israel’s controversial attacks on hospitals and medical facilities across Gaza. He claimed these attacks are examples of how the Russian forces plan to proceed with the nature of their attacks on Kherson.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are riding bikes. This character was clearly eliminated) so far he is a strong 300. Evacuation is not allowed to approach😏”
“Kherson. Cinema. A curious story is told by a dickhead , but we know where and to whom this body went. Later we will show the continuation of Juliet’s heartbreaking story.”
Later that day, Osvedomitell Alex levied completely unfounded allegations against the woman by claiming that she was aiding & sleeping with homeless people under the bridge, and that her supposedly deceased father’s military status made her a legitimate target. It should be noted none of this, true or not, makes her a legitimate target.
“Kherson. Red zone. The body is the daughter of a volunteer cock, who was killed and buried in the city. The dickhead was constantly chasing the homeless under the bridge, sometimes food, sometimes love was delivered to the point. They chased her more than once, the woman is a fool. Whether she will take up her saucepan or not, we will find out soon, because we are already flying to her home….. We will find everyone. Any movement of vehicles will be considered a legitimate target. All critical infrastructure facilities are a legitimate target. Civilians should be extremely attentive and careful. Limit your movement, leave this zone if possible.”
Osvedomitell Alex really shows the true intent of the Russian forces in the area when he threatens her life further and claims to be actively targeting her home. An important detail to keep in mind – this woman is a 23 year-old mother of two young children. Any targeting of her home would reasonably include her children as well. Osvedomitell Alex’s inability to spin any sort of consistency into his lies, his typical reliance on racist verbal attacks and his enraged threats toward civilians unveil how Russia seeks to control the narrative in Kherson.
Russian collaborationist accounts, like “Healthy Kherson,” have also engaged in war crimes denial. In a post from October 23rd, 2024, the channel claimed that the civilians of Kherson are staging drone strikes with their own weapons and had access to footage of the attacks before any footage was made public. This is a lie.
“This is how they film setups where the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves drop missiles on civilians and then blame Russian soldiers for it. We have said many times that you shouldn’t drive by the river in Kherson. There are no problems in the city if you are not connected with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Our observers see and record everything. This video was filmed by a Ukrainian blogger who somehow had the source video of the drop on the car…???”
Despite their efforts at attempting to deny war crimes, they actually proved that they struck a civilian vehicle. Luckily, the man and woman in the car were uninjured. OSINT analysts Andrew Perpetua & PJ “giK” identified a video shared by Osvedomitell Alex on October 2nd, which provided a match on the claimed staged footage and a match on the car hit by the drone-dropped grenade.
“Kherson. Red zone . Another transport in the forbidden zone for equipment. This machine was going straight from the enemy OP. The result is on video and so it will be for everyone. Once again. Any vehicle in the zone is a target.”
Our investigators geolocated the attack to Skhidna Vulytsya 26 – a street in a neighborhood in north central Antonivka (46.68135276934564, 32.68803722817029).
These parallel screenshots with identical timestamps visible in each lower right corner from the “Healthy Kherson” video (left) and Osvedomitell Alex’s original post (right) proves they are one and the same. The “Healthy Kherson” video is slightly worse in quality as it is a cellphone video of another cell phone video filming a drone video feed. Osvedomitell Alex’s original post was itself a cellphone video capturing a live feed from a drone tablet. The collaborationist channel fails in this way to establish legitimacy in its claim and proves that it is actively involved in war crime and genocide denial.
As Russian forces continue to perpetrate these crimes and deny their responsibility, the Tochnyi team will continue to monitor and research these heinous acts by Russian forces. The continued perpetration of criminal acts and the manifold low-effort attempts at denial follow the same patterns seen since June. Also consistent with previous patterns in Russian drone use are the attacks targeting first responders. New groups may continue to enter the fray on the Russian side as Russian drone pilots continue their training by targeting civilians and first responders. In the meantime, the effects of Ukraine’s response to these war criminals will surely tell as the autumn rolls into winter. And as for the civilian population, without Western aid & support, the poor weather, the local government’s response, and the breadth & success of the Ukrainian counter battery fire seem to be the determining factors in their survival and protection.
Sources
English Sources:
ATP Geopolitics. (2024). Ukraine War Live Stream w/ Brendan Kelley – Follow Up on Civilian Drone Attacks [Video]. In YouTube.
David Helms on X: “15-16 OCT 2024: #NAFOWeather Scattered Mix(north)/Rainshowers(all Ukraine) Wind from northwest at 2-8 m/s Min Temp 6C THU-FRI(17-18 OCT) Rainshowers(south/east) Mostly Cloudy(west/north) Min Temp 4C https://t.co/DjWo2dGm9I” / X. (n.d.). X (Formerly Twitter). https://x.com/davidhelms570/status/1846190371073630261
Nikulin, A., De Smet, T. S., Baur, J., Frazer, W. D., & Abramowitz, J. C. (2018). Detection and Identification of Remnant PFM-1 ‘Butterfly Mines’ with a UAV-Based Thermal-Imaging Protocol. Remote Sensing, 10(11), 1672. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10111672
